Stocks, bottom confirmed?

With bullish Head and Shoulder`s neckline already broken, i`ll should wait for a decisive retest of this one; but due to GDP number better than expected released this morning, continuation without a pullback for retest could be possible. For detailed explanation of my forecast, see my videocast @ http://www.screencast.com/users/GustavoForex/folders/Swelltrader/media/8f6e9875-9ad1-422c-a6b1-332d0600e0cb

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USDCAD H4 Bearish Head and Shoulders… follow up

Nice unfolding of this Head and Shoulders Top.

Spotted on July 13

Nice unfolding. Green rectangle shows Head and Shoulder Pattern.

The pattern located within the bearish trend

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Oil, continuation Head and Shoulders?

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Bullish Head and Shoulder almost confirmed, bottoming too…

On July 9th, i posted my forecast for DJI and S&P (view http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/07/stocks-market-major-bottom-in-making.html ). I was expecting price to unfold a short term Bearish H&S in both indexes, which should conform right shoulder of a bigger bullish H&S patter which, if confirmed, should mark bottoming of bearish move since actual economic crisis beginning. The bearish H&S, was a fake. Price broke neckline and pulled back to retest but it didn't and continued bullish until actual prices. The bearish move was nothing more than an AB=CD pattern which finished @ 8.087.32  in DJI and @ 869.73 in S&P.

After the bearish move, prices begun to move bullish to actual levels, reaching and breaking bigger Bullish H&S`s Neckline.

I expect price pullback to retest broken neckline and continue rising to reach H&S and Fibonacci fibfans+Fibonacci Retracements projections (green rectangles) Important to note that Elliott Wave counting shows that prices are now unfolding wave 3 of the entire move from the very low in March 06/2009.

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EURUSD, Bearish Short term H&S in the making…

Bullish breakout?  Today may not be the day.

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USDJPY, very low risk Short Entry (H&S Pattern)

Additionally to the bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern showed above, COT report (Commitment of Traders) analysis (below) for USDJPY, shows that the Non Commercials has been flipped to a Net Short position, after 16 weeks of indecision, which corresponds with the time expended for the H&S pattern to conform. Rising red line, which shows Open Interest development, means that new money is jumping into the market. I`ll maintain this trade until the COT report flips again but to a Net Long position and i will do it in a demo account, since is my first time in this kind of analysis.

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USDCAD H4 Bearish H&S… end of bullish correction?

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Stocks Market, major bottom in the making…

H4 time frame shows in both, Down Jones and S&P 500, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern actually retesting broken neckline. Unfolding of these patterns plus detailed Fibonacci analysis and Elliott Wave counting, give me a very possible support area, that will conform Right shoulder of a Daily Bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern in both indexes that, if unfolded, meaning with that bullish neckline break, retest and new higher prices, it will give us the certainty of a daily trend change to the upside. Having that said, what i FORECAST is: S&P: Drop down to an area within 853.40 to 777.44, then rise to 956.80 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level). Dow Jones: Drop down to an area within 7.779 to 7.389, then rise to 8.873 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level).

S&P charts

Dow Jones Charts

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GBPJPY… i always wanted to say this: “… ¡BANG! ”

See previous post on this topic: http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/07/gbpjpy-poised-to-big-short-bearish-move.html

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Definitely very good bearish opportunity in GBPJPY

Important to note that from 5 min to H4 timeframe, all MA`s are positioned in bearish “trend mode”

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GBPJPY poised for a bearish move

Based on my previous post on june 22th ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/gbpjpy-h4-head-and-shoulders-in-making.html ), and after the  possible bearish H&S`s neckline has been broken and retested, i think this pair will unfold a big bearish move of about 700 pips. despite of the H&S pattern, is very important to note that moving averages in H4 time frame, are positioning in bearish “trend mode”.

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S&P bearish Head and Shoulders, coherent with Elliott Wave counting

Continuing with my forecast done in June 15th ( see http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/s-heading-for-bullish-head-and.html ), i see actual S&P index moves being coherent with the fact that the index is unfolding a bearish correction after 5 impulsive waves (i, ii, iii, iv & v), to conform wave 2 (ABC) of a bigger bullish move (5 bullish impulsive waves). Is very important to note that this bearish correction is being made thru the conformation of a possible bearish H&S in H4 time frame  I`ll wait for H&S`s neckline break and retest for confirmation.

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