S&P Wave ii (bearish) finished

As we can see, the new high after the AB=CD bearish correction confirms that wave ii is just finished.

The wave ii mentioned above act as bigger bullish Head and Shoulder`s neckline retest. Since wave iii can not be the smaller wave of the 5 impulsive waves, we can expect this wave to have, at least, wave i`s measure. That give us a projection to, at least, 1.145.31 level, which corresponds with 61.8 fib retracement level of the entire move from October/2007 high to March/2009 low. I think that from now on, we can expect Huge moves, do to the fact that prices are now unfolding wave iii of a bigger wave 3.

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Stocks, bottom confirmed?

With bullish Head and Shoulder`s neckline already broken, i`ll should wait for a decisive retest of this one; but due to GDP number better than expected released this morning, continuation without a pullback for retest could be possible. For detailed explanation of my forecast, see my videocast @ http://www.screencast.com/users/GustavoForex/folders/Swelltrader/media/8f6e9875-9ad1-422c-a6b1-332d0600e0cb

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Stocks Market, major bottom in the making…

H4 time frame shows in both, Down Jones and S&P 500, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern actually retesting broken neckline. Unfolding of these patterns plus detailed Fibonacci analysis and Elliott Wave counting, give me a very possible support area, that will conform Right shoulder of a Daily Bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern in both indexes that, if unfolded, meaning with that bullish neckline break, retest and new higher prices, it will give us the certainty of a daily trend change to the upside. Having that said, what i FORECAST is: S&P: Drop down to an area within 853.40 to 777.44, then rise to 956.80 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level). Dow Jones: Drop down to an area within 7.779 to 7.389, then rise to 8.873 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level).

S&P charts

Dow Jones Charts

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S&P… Heading for a Bullish Head and Shoulders?

Standard and Poor's 500 Index could be heading towards Right Shoulder of a Bullish Head and Shoulder (Inverted Head and Shoulder). Mainly two things are giving me signals for that: 1. Index moved down from 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06 in a 3 corrective wave pattern (ABC). Since that low @ 663.29, price moved in a 5 impulsive wave pattern, and seems to be ended wave 5 @ 956.21 last 2009-06-11.

2. Price broke 38.2 Fib Fan channel of the entire move form 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06. I expect a correction down to 38.2 – 61.8 Fib Retracement level of this last swing (which will form Right Shoulder) before price resume rising to 61.8 Fib Fan level.

NZDUSD, H4 Bullish Head and Shoulders

This pair is now at a critical moment for trend reversal.

We`ll wait for break and retest of the neckline to go long. Note that price entered 38.2 fibfan channel. That should lead price to 61.8 level.

Este par esta pasando por un momento crítico para el cambio de tendencia.

Esperare un break and retest del neckline para comprar. Notar que el precio ha entrado en el canal Fibfan 38.2. Eso debe llevar el precio al nivel de 61.8.

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S&P 500, Possible new bullish trend in the making

Bearish trend form 2007.10.07 @ 1575.58, could be reached its end. As can be seen in the chart, the move unfolded in a 3 wave corrective structure that found a bottom at 227.2 and 423.6 Fib Expansion and Extension FibZone respectively. Have to wait for highest levels (38.2 fibfan channel break, not shown) for a new trend confirmation. La tendencia bajista desde 2007.10.07 en el nivel de 1575.58, podría haber llegado su fin. Como se puede ver en la gráfica, el movimiento se desenvolvió en un patrón correctivo de 3 ondas, que encontró soporte en la zona fib compuesta por los niveles 227.2 y 423.6 correspondientes a la extension y expansión fib respectivamente. Hay que esperar nuevos máximos (ruptura del canal 38.2 Fib Fan, no mostrado), para poder confirmar la nueva tendencia.

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Dow Jones Index, Important trend line break

Still have to wait for a day close over previous high @ 7924.61, but bearish trend line break and retest (bigger green square) is a good signal for a new bullish trend establishment. Price is about to enter 38.2% Fib Fan channel. If that occurs, price should climb up to, at least, 9168.51 fib zone level, marked within smaller green square. Not showed, but AB=CD analysis from 6470.09 previous low also coincides with the mentioned fib zone level.  Teniendo que esperar todavía un cierre diario por encima del máximo anterior @ 7924.61, el breakout de la línea de tendencia bajista (marcado con el recuadro verde mas grande), es un buen síntoma para el establecimiento de una nueva tendencia alcista. El precio esta a punto de entra en el canal Fib Fan del 38.2%. Si eso ocurre, deberá subir, por lo menos, al nivel de zona fib en 9168.51, marcado dentro del recuadro verde mas pequeño. Aunque no lo muestro en la grafica, el análisis AB=CD desde el mínimo anterior en 6470.09, también coincide con el mencionado nivel de zona fib.

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