I insist… S&P Bearish Head and Shoulders in the making

After the clearly defined 5 waves bullish move, price is unfolding an ABC correction pattern, now at possible wave B completion as seen in Chart 2. Is important to note, as seen in Chart 1,  that even though price rejected from 38.2 Fib Retracement level, it entered and broke 38.2 Fib Fan Channel, giving high possibilities of reaching 61.8 level. Finally, but not less important, is the possible Head and Shoulders pattern seen in Chart 3. Note the symmetry shown between the time spent by price to go from Left Shoulder date to Head and from Head to the possible Right Shoulder (71 days).

Chart 1. Elliott Wave counting.

Chart 2. Wave B of possible ABC correction.

Chart 3. Possible daily Bearish Head and Shoulders in the making.

Anatomía de un Head and Shoulders en ciernes en USDJPY

El precio ha roto claramente el canal alcista en la franja de 4 horas. La confirmación de dicho rompimiento debería darse con un pullback hacia la línea de tendencia, tal como lo muestra la grafica. En dado caso, se estaría formando un patrón Head and Shoulders, que llevaría el precio hacia niveles de 88.47. El pullback (que conformaría el hombro derecho) no debería ser mayor que el Retroceso Fibonacci del 78.2% en 93.19.   -

EURUSD, end of correction?… if yes, a text book one

This trend line break and retest and the apparently Head and Shoulders Pattern in the making, would be a text book correction ending. Este rompimiento y retest de tendencia y el aparente Patrón Head and Shoulders que se esta formando, seria un fin de corrección de “libro de texto”.

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USDCAD H4 Bearish Head and Shoulders… follow up

Nice unfolding of this Head and Shoulders Top.

Spotted on July 13

Nice unfolding. Green rectangle shows Head and Shoulder Pattern.

The pattern located within the bearish trend

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Oil, continuation Head and Shoulders?

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Bullish Head and Shoulder almost confirmed, bottoming too…

On July 9th, i posted my forecast for DJI and S&P (view http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/07/stocks-market-major-bottom-in-making.html ). I was expecting price to unfold a short term Bearish H&S in both indexes, which should conform right shoulder of a bigger bullish H&S patter which, if confirmed, should mark bottoming of bearish move since actual economic crisis beginning. The bearish H&S, was a fake. Price broke neckline and pulled back to retest but it didn't and continued bullish until actual prices. The bearish move was nothing more than an AB=CD pattern which finished @ 8.087.32  in DJI and @ 869.73 in S&P.

After the bearish move, prices begun to move bullish to actual levels, reaching and breaking bigger Bullish H&S`s Neckline.

I expect price pullback to retest broken neckline and continue rising to reach H&S and Fibonacci fibfans+Fibonacci Retracements projections (green rectangles) Important to note that Elliott Wave counting shows that prices are now unfolding wave 3 of the entire move from the very low in March 06/2009.

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EURUSD, Bearish Short term H&S in the making…

Bullish breakout?  Today may not be the day.

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USDJPY, very low risk Short Entry (H&S Pattern)

Additionally to the bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern showed above, COT report (Commitment of Traders) analysis (below) for USDJPY, shows that the Non Commercials has been flipped to a Net Short position, after 16 weeks of indecision, which corresponds with the time expended for the H&S pattern to conform. Rising red line, which shows Open Interest development, means that new money is jumping into the market. I`ll maintain this trade until the COT report flips again but to a Net Long position and i will do it in a demo account, since is my first time in this kind of analysis.

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USDCAD H4 Bearish H&S… end of bullish correction?

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Stocks Market, major bottom in the making…

H4 time frame shows in both, Down Jones and S&P 500, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern actually retesting broken neckline. Unfolding of these patterns plus detailed Fibonacci analysis and Elliott Wave counting, give me a very possible support area, that will conform Right shoulder of a Daily Bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern in both indexes that, if unfolded, meaning with that bullish neckline break, retest and new higher prices, it will give us the certainty of a daily trend change to the upside. Having that said, what i FORECAST is: S&P: Drop down to an area within 853.40 to 777.44, then rise to 956.80 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level). Dow Jones: Drop down to an area within 7.779 to 7.389, then rise to 8.873 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level).

S&P charts

Dow Jones Charts

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GBPJPY poised for a bearish move

Based on my previous post on june 22th ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/gbpjpy-h4-head-and-shoulders-in-making.html ), and after the  possible bearish H&S`s neckline has been broken and retested, i think this pair will unfold a big bearish move of about 700 pips. despite of the H&S pattern, is very important to note that moving averages in H4 time frame, are positioning in bearish “trend mode”.

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S&P bearish Head and Shoulders, coherent with Elliott Wave counting

Continuing with my forecast done in June 15th ( see http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/s-heading-for-bullish-head-and.html ), i see actual S&P index moves being coherent with the fact that the index is unfolding a bearish correction after 5 impulsive waves (i, ii, iii, iv & v), to conform wave 2 (ABC) of a bigger bullish move (5 bullish impulsive waves). Is very important to note that this bearish correction is being made thru the conformation of a possible bearish H&S in H4 time frame  I`ll wait for H&S`s neckline break and retest for confirmation.

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GBPJPY, H4 Head and Shoulders in the making

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S&P… Heading for a Bullish Head and Shoulders?

Standard and Poor's 500 Index could be heading towards Right Shoulder of a Bullish Head and Shoulder (Inverted Head and Shoulder). Mainly two things are giving me signals for that: 1. Index moved down from 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06 in a 3 corrective wave pattern (ABC). Since that low @ 663.29, price moved in a 5 impulsive wave pattern, and seems to be ended wave 5 @ 956.21 last 2009-06-11.

2. Price broke 38.2 Fib Fan channel of the entire move form 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06. I expect a correction down to 38.2 – 61.8 Fib Retracement level of this last swing (which will form Right Shoulder) before price resume rising to 61.8 Fib Fan level.

EURUSD H4 Head and Shoulders… all ready!!

AS forecasted on June 09 ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-follow-up-new-entry-opportunity.html ), Head and shoulders is unfolding well. All ready for Breakdown!!

De acuerdo a lo proyectado en Junio 09 ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-follow-up-new-entry-opportunity.html ), el Head and Shoulders en este par se esta desenvoplviendo bien. Todo listo para el Breakdown!!

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Continuation Head and Shoulders Pattern… yes, it exists

As a very interesting fact, i want to show this M5 “Continuation Head and Shoulders” pattern.

Como algo intersante, quiero mostrar este Head and Shoulders actuando como patron de continuidad.

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EURUSD, Follow up, new entry opportunity

Within the bearish scenario forecasted previously http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-pullback-great-opportunity.html , this is another opportunity for a nice profit of this pullback. Interesting to note that the head of this possible Head and Shoulders, corresponds to the previous H1 Head and Shoulders, already unfolded.   Dentro del escenario bajista proyectado previamente http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-pullback-great-opportunity.html , esta es otra oportunidad para una ganar en este pullback. Interesante notar que la cabeza de este Head and Shoulders corresponde con el Head and Shoulders en la franja de una hora previamente identificado y totalmente desarrollado.

CITI, showing bullish signs…

There are two important signs of bullish bias in this stock. The first one is the possible Head and Shoulder Pattern that is finding important resistance at Neckline.

In that context, a very important support Trend Line have been touched and respected for 6 times.

EURUSD Pullback, great opportunity before resuming bullish movements

EURUSD is pulling back after a Bearish Gartley unfolding.

El EURUSD esta retrocediendo después del desarrollo de un Gartley bajista.

The entry for this 465 pips opportunity could be this H1 Bearish Head and Shoulders.

La entrada para esta oportunidad de 465 pips puede ser este Head and Shoulders en la franja H1

Is important to note that the EURUSD is within a bigger Bearish Gartley, now unfolding leg CD.

Meaning that EURUSD will resume its bullish movements after the pullback.

Es importante anotar que el EURUSD esta dentro de un Gartley bajista mayor, que ahora esta desarrollando la pierna CD.

Lo anterior quiere decir que se espera que después de este pullbak, el EURUSD retome sus movimientos alcistas.

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NZDUSD… doing VERY well

This was the forecast i made at May 7th.: http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/nzdusd-h4-bullish-head-and-shoulders.html

Este fue el forecast que hice en Mayo 7:  http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/nzdusd-h4-bullish-head-and-shoulders.html

Todate, the pair is unfolding a “textbook” Head and Shoulders … doing very well.

A la fecha, el parte esta desarrollando un Head and Shoulders “de libro”… va muy bien.

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