I insist… S&P Bearish Head and Shoulders in the making

After the clearly defined 5 waves bullish move, price is unfolding an ABC correction pattern, now at possible wave B completion as seen in Chart 2. Is important to note, as seen in Chart 1,  that even though price rejected from 38.2 Fib Retracement level, it entered and broke 38.2 Fib Fan Channel, giving high possibilities of reaching 61.8 level. Finally, but not less important, is the possible Head and Shoulders pattern seen in Chart 3. Note the symmetry shown between the time spent by price to go from Left Shoulder date to Head and from Head to the possible Right Shoulder (71 days).

Chart 1. Elliott Wave counting.

Chart 2. Wave B of possible ABC correction.

Chart 3. Possible daily Bearish Head and Shoulders in the making.

USDJPY Head and Shoulders… si, pero no

Lo que se veía venir como un Head and Shoulders ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2010/01/anatomia-de-un-head-and-shoulders-en.html ), ha resultado ser una variación del mismo, conocida como “diamond formation”. No es mas que un Head and Shoulders con su hombro derecho desplazado hacia abajo. En este patrón, el precio debe ser contenido por la línea de tendencia formada entre el top de la cabeza y el top del hombro derecho, que actúa como resistencia dinámica. El potencial del patrón es la medida en pips entre la cabeza y mínimo anterior al top del hombro derecho, en este caso unos 300 pips, proyectados desde el rompimiento de la base del hombro derecho. Según lo anterior, el precio debería buscar niveles de 87.72.

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Anatomía de un Head and Shoulders en ciernes en USDJPY

El precio ha roto claramente el canal alcista en la franja de 4 horas. La confirmación de dicho rompimiento debería darse con un pullback hacia la línea de tendencia, tal como lo muestra la grafica. En dado caso, se estaría formando un patrón Head and Shoulders, que llevaría el precio hacia niveles de 88.47. El pullback (que conformaría el hombro derecho) no debería ser mayor que el Retroceso Fibonacci del 78.2% en 93.19.   -

S&P500, H1 Bullish continuation Head & Shoulders Pattern

Así veo S&P:

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EURUSD, end of correction?… if yes, a text book one

This trend line break and retest and the apparently Head and Shoulders Pattern in the making, would be a text book correction ending. Este rompimiento y retest de tendencia y el aparente Patrón Head and Shoulders que se esta formando, seria un fin de corrección de “libro de texto”.

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USDCAD, m5. Possible Bearish Head and Shoulders

If confirmed (break and retest of neckline), this will be a nice 80 pips move. Si se confirma (rompimiento y retest de la línea de cuello), este sera un bonito movimiento de 80 pips.

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Oil, continuation Head and Shoulders?

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Bullish Head and Shoulder almost confirmed, bottoming too…

On July 9th, i posted my forecast for DJI and S&P (view http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/07/stocks-market-major-bottom-in-making.html ). I was expecting price to unfold a short term Bearish H&S in both indexes, which should conform right shoulder of a bigger bullish H&S patter which, if confirmed, should mark bottoming of bearish move since actual economic crisis beginning. The bearish H&S, was a fake. Price broke neckline and pulled back to retest but it didn't and continued bullish until actual prices. The bearish move was nothing more than an AB=CD pattern which finished @ 8.087.32  in DJI and @ 869.73 in S&P.

After the bearish move, prices begun to move bullish to actual levels, reaching and breaking bigger Bullish H&S`s Neckline.

I expect price pullback to retest broken neckline and continue rising to reach H&S and Fibonacci fibfans+Fibonacci Retracements projections (green rectangles) Important to note that Elliott Wave counting shows that prices are now unfolding wave 3 of the entire move from the very low in March 06/2009.

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EURUSD, Bearish Short term H&S in the making…

Bullish breakout?  Today may not be the day.

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Stocks Market, major bottom in the making…

H4 time frame shows in both, Down Jones and S&P 500, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern actually retesting broken neckline. Unfolding of these patterns plus detailed Fibonacci analysis and Elliott Wave counting, give me a very possible support area, that will conform Right shoulder of a Daily Bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern in both indexes that, if unfolded, meaning with that bullish neckline break, retest and new higher prices, it will give us the certainty of a daily trend change to the upside. Having that said, what i FORECAST is: S&P: Drop down to an area within 853.40 to 777.44, then rise to 956.80 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level). Dow Jones: Drop down to an area within 7.779 to 7.389, then rise to 8.873 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level).

S&P charts

Dow Jones Charts

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S&P bearish Head and Shoulders, coherent with Elliott Wave counting

Continuing with my forecast done in June 15th ( see http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/s-heading-for-bullish-head-and.html ), i see actual S&P index moves being coherent with the fact that the index is unfolding a bearish correction after 5 impulsive waves (i, ii, iii, iv & v), to conform wave 2 (ABC) of a bigger bullish move (5 bullish impulsive waves). Is very important to note that this bearish correction is being made thru the conformation of a possible bearish H&S in H4 time frame  I`ll wait for H&S`s neckline break and retest for confirmation.

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GBPJPY, H4 Head and Shoulders in the making

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S&P… Heading for a Bullish Head and Shoulders?

Standard and Poor's 500 Index could be heading towards Right Shoulder of a Bullish Head and Shoulder (Inverted Head and Shoulder). Mainly two things are giving me signals for that: 1. Index moved down from 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06 in a 3 corrective wave pattern (ABC). Since that low @ 663.29, price moved in a 5 impulsive wave pattern, and seems to be ended wave 5 @ 956.21 last 2009-06-11.

2. Price broke 38.2 Fib Fan channel of the entire move form 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06. I expect a correction down to 38.2 – 61.8 Fib Retracement level of this last swing (which will form Right Shoulder) before price resume rising to 61.8 Fib Fan level.

EURUSD H4 Head and Shoulders… all ready!!

AS forecasted on June 09 ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-follow-up-new-entry-opportunity.html ), Head and shoulders is unfolding well. All ready for Breakdown!!

De acuerdo a lo proyectado en Junio 09 ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-follow-up-new-entry-opportunity.html ), el Head and Shoulders en este par se esta desenvoplviendo bien. Todo listo para el Breakdown!!

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EURUSD, Follow up, new entry opportunity

Within the bearish scenario forecasted previously http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-pullback-great-opportunity.html , this is another opportunity for a nice profit of this pullback. Interesting to note that the head of this possible Head and Shoulders, corresponds to the previous H1 Head and Shoulders, already unfolded.   Dentro del escenario bajista proyectado previamente http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/eurusd-pullback-great-opportunity.html , esta es otra oportunidad para una ganar en este pullback. Interesante notar que la cabeza de este Head and Shoulders corresponde con el Head and Shoulders en la franja de una hora previamente identificado y totalmente desarrollado.

EURUSD Pullback, great opportunity before resuming bullish movements

EURUSD is pulling back after a Bearish Gartley unfolding.

El EURUSD esta retrocediendo después del desarrollo de un Gartley bajista.

The entry for this 465 pips opportunity could be this H1 Bearish Head and Shoulders.

La entrada para esta oportunidad de 465 pips puede ser este Head and Shoulders en la franja H1

Is important to note that the EURUSD is within a bigger Bearish Gartley, now unfolding leg CD.

Meaning that EURUSD will resume its bullish movements after the pullback.

Es importante anotar que el EURUSD esta dentro de un Gartley bajista mayor, que ahora esta desarrollando la pierna CD.

Lo anterior quiere decir que se espera que después de este pullbak, el EURUSD retome sus movimientos alcistas.

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USDCAD, possible Bearish Head & Shoulders

Seems to be that the Bullish Flat Triangle have failed. This scenario is favored by the possible Head & Shoulder showed in the chart below. For being conservative, i should expect the target for the H&S @ 1.1459, which will switch the triangle in a rectangle.  Aparentemente el triangulo plano alcista ha fallado. Este escenario se ve favorecido por un posible Head and Shoulders mostrado en la grafica de abajo. Para ser conservador, yo esperaría que el objetivo del Head and Shoulders este en 1.1459, que convertiría el triangulo en un rectángulo.

EURGBP, big bearish Butterfly & Gartley

	As can be seen, there is a BIG Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern in the monthly time frame, which give us the big picture of the price movement of the pair: Bearish. Than should lead prices down to, at least, 0.7741, which corresponds with 61.8 fib ret level of XA leg. Como se puede ver en la grafica, hay un gran patrón Armónico Butterfly bajista en la franja mensual, lo que nos da la visión general del movimiento del precio: bajista. Eso debe llevar el precio hasta, por lo menos, 0.774, que corresponde al 61.8 fib ret. del movimiento XA.
	Within that BIG Butterfly, price is unfolding what can be a bullish Gartley, now unfolding possible CD leg and which can be profited until its D point. Dentro de ese gran patrón Butterfly, el precio esta desenvolviendo un posible Gartley alcista, ahora desenvolviendo lo que sería el segmento CD y que puedeser transado hasta su punto D.

USDJPY, Bearish Gartley

	As can be seen, price is moving within 61.8 and 78.2 fibfan channels, so is expected price to reach, at least, 78.2 channel. Also, price can be unfolding CD leg of a Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern, which means that could rise up to 88.6 fib retracement of the XA segment. Como se puede ver en la gráfica, el precio se esta moviendo entre los canales fibfan 61.8 y 78.2, lo que implica que el precio debe llegar, por lo menos, al nivel del 78.2 fibfan channel. Además, el precio podría estar desarrollando un Patrón Armónico Gartley, lo que significa que este podría subir hasta el nivel del 88.6 fib ret. del segmento XA.
	In lower time frame, we can see price moving within a bullsih channel, no in a pullback. En franjas de tiempo menores, podemos ver que el precio se mueve dentro de un canal alcista y actualmente esta en un pullback.
	In 15 min TF, we can see that price is moving between Fibfan channels supports and top side of the flag correction pattern. Have to wait for a breakout of the flag, or an entry to the fibfan channels which will make price to drop looking for the bottom side of the flag. En la franja de 15 minutos, podemos ver que el precio se esta moviendo entre los soportes que suministran los canales fibfan y la línea superior de la bandera correctiva bajista. Hay que esperar un breakout de dicha bandera O la entrada a los canales fibfan, lo que implicaría que el precio caería hasta la parte baja de la bandera bajista.

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USDCAD, Gartley Harmonic Pattern in the making

Within the big ¿bullish? triangle , there is a possible Gartley in the making, now ending BC leg. Expecting to drop down to 1.2303 to conform C point and then begin rising to final D point. Dentro del gran triangulo ¿alcista?, hay un posible Patrón Armónico Gartley en formación, ahora terminando el segmento BC. Espero que el precio baje hasta 1.2303 para conformar el punto C y luego empiece su camino alcista hacia el punto final D

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