S&P: Onda iv confirmada

El posible Patrón head and Shoulders identificado en Octubre 9 (Ver http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/10/s-h1-bullish-continuation-head.html ), no se desarrollo. Sin embargo, a pesar de que el precio logro penetrar sutilmente los terrenos de la onda ii, considero que la onda iv ha quedado confirmada. Análisis anteriores: Septiembre 26/2009  http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/09/elliott-wave-analisis-para-s.html La onda v debería quedar terminada por los niveles de 1.130.60.

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S&P500, H1 Bullish continuation Head & Shoulders Pattern

Así veo S&P:

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EURUSD, end of correction?… if yes, a text book one

This trend line break and retest and the apparently Head and Shoulders Pattern in the making, would be a text book correction ending. Este rompimiento y retest de tendencia y el aparente Patrón Head and Shoulders que se esta formando, seria un fin de corrección de “libro de texto”.

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GBPUSD H1, Bullish Head and Shoulders

Have to wait for confirmation of the 123 buy pattern, but i think the most of the possibilities are for a nice bullish move after the unfolding of this pattern. Hay que esperar la confirmación del patrón 123 de compra, pero creo que las mayores posibilidades son de un buen movimiento alcista después del desarrollo de este patrón.

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S&P Wave ii (bearish) finished

As we can see, the new high after the AB=CD bearish correction confirms that wave ii is just finished.

The wave ii mentioned above act as bigger bullish Head and Shoulder`s neckline retest. Since wave iii can not be the smaller wave of the 5 impulsive waves, we can expect this wave to have, at least, wave i`s measure. That give us a projection to, at least, 1.145.31 level, which corresponds with 61.8 fib retracement level of the entire move from October/2007 high to March/2009 low. I think that from now on, we can expect Huge moves, do to the fact that prices are now unfolding wave iii of a bigger wave 3.

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S&P Wave ii (bearish) in progress

Finally prices begun to correct, unfolding wave ii within the bigger bullish wave 3. I expect this correction to finish within the fib zone remarked with the green rectangle. Since the next bullish move after wave ii end will be wave iii of a bigger wave 3, is expected to be a huge and maybe violent move.

The big picture should be like the graph below

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Stocks, bottom confirmed?

With bullish Head and Shoulder`s neckline already broken, i`ll should wait for a decisive retest of this one; but due to GDP number better than expected released this morning, continuation without a pullback for retest could be possible. For detailed explanation of my forecast, see my videocast @ http://www.screencast.com/users/GustavoForex/folders/Swelltrader/media/8f6e9875-9ad1-422c-a6b1-332d0600e0cb

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USDCAD H4 Bearish H&S… end of bullish correction?

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S&P bearish Head and Shoulders, coherent with Elliott Wave counting

Continuing with my forecast done in June 15th ( see http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/s-heading-for-bullish-head-and.html ), i see actual S&P index moves being coherent with the fact that the index is unfolding a bearish correction after 5 impulsive waves (i, ii, iii, iv & v), to conform wave 2 (ABC) of a bigger bullish move (5 bullish impulsive waves). Is very important to note that this bearish correction is being made thru the conformation of a possible bearish H&S in H4 time frame  I`ll wait for H&S`s neckline break and retest for confirmation.

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S&P… Heading for a Bullish Head and Shoulders?

Standard and Poor's 500 Index could be heading towards Right Shoulder of a Bullish Head and Shoulder (Inverted Head and Shoulder). Mainly two things are giving me signals for that: 1. Index moved down from 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06 in a 3 corrective wave pattern (ABC). Since that low @ 663.29, price moved in a 5 impulsive wave pattern, and seems to be ended wave 5 @ 956.21 last 2009-06-11.

2. Price broke 38.2 Fib Fan channel of the entire move form 1.576 level @ 2007-10-10 to 663.29 level @ 2009-03-06. I expect a correction down to 38.2 – 61.8 Fib Retracement level of this last swing (which will form Right Shoulder) before price resume rising to 61.8 Fib Fan level.

CITI, showing bullish signs…

There are two important signs of bullish bias in this stock. The first one is the possible Head and Shoulder Pattern that is finding important resistance at Neckline.

In that context, a very important support Trend Line have been touched and respected for 6 times.

NZDUSD… doing VERY well

This was the forecast i made at May 7th.: http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/nzdusd-h4-bullish-head-and-shoulders.html

Este fue el forecast que hice en Mayo 7:  http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/nzdusd-h4-bullish-head-and-shoulders.html

Todate, the pair is unfolding a “textbook” Head and Shoulders … doing very well.

A la fecha, el parte esta desarrollando un Head and Shoulders “de libro”… va muy bien.

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NZDUSD, H4 Bullish Head and Shoulders

This pair is now at a critical moment for trend reversal.

We`ll wait for break and retest of the neckline to go long. Note that price entered 38.2 fibfan channel. That should lead price to 61.8 level.

Este par esta pasando por un momento crítico para el cambio de tendencia.

Esperare un break and retest del neckline para comprar. Notar que el precio ha entrado en el canal Fibfan 38.2. Eso debe llevar el precio al nivel de 61.8.

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USDCAD, Gartley Harmonic Pattern in the making

Within the big ¿bullish? triangle , there is a possible Gartley in the making, now ending BC leg. Expecting to drop down to 1.2303 to conform C point and then begin rising to final D point. Dentro del gran triangulo ¿alcista?, hay un posible Patrón Armónico Gartley en formación, ahora terminando el segmento BC. Espero que el precio baje hasta 1.2303 para conformar el punto C y luego empiece su camino alcista hacia el punto final D

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EURAUD, Bullish Triangle

	The whole idea is to catch the bullish move within the triangle, in order to be in a free trade if the bullish breakout occurs. La idea es coger en el movimiento alcista dentro del triangulo, de forma que cuando se de el breakout alcista, estemos en una “free trade”.
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USDJPY, Bullish Pennant (Follow up)

	Nice breakout.
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CITI, 5 min Bullish Pennant (Follow Up)

What was expected to be a Bullish Pennant, finally became a Bullish Flag (See red square). At today's open, price “explode” as expected almost to the pip (30 pips). While i am writing this post, 1 hour after market open, seems to be buyers are taking control of the session since retest is having problems to occur. Lo que se esperaba fuera un banderín alcista, finalmente se convirtió en una bandera alcista (Ver recuadro rojo). En la apertura de hoy, el precio “exploto” como se preveía, con una exactitud “al pip” (30 pips). Mientras escribo este post, una hora después de abierto el mercado, parece ser que los compradores están tomando el control de la sesión, debido a la dificultad que se nota para que el retest ocurra.

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USDJPY, Bullish pennant

	Very well formed Bullish pennant about to “explode”. Muy bien formado Banderín Alcista a punto de explotar.
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