USDJPY, very low risk Short Entry (H&S Pattern)

Additionally to the bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern showed above, COT report (Commitment of Traders) analysis (below) for USDJPY, shows that the Non Commercials has been flipped to a Net Short position, after 16 weeks of indecision, which corresponds with the time expended for the H&S pattern to conform. Rising red line, which shows Open Interest development, means that new money is jumping into the market. I`ll maintain this trade until the COT report flips again but to a Net Long position and i will do it in a demo account, since is my first time in this kind of analysis.

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USDCAD H4 Bearish H&S… end of bullish correction?

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Stocks Market, major bottom in the making…

H4 time frame shows in both, Down Jones and S&P 500, a clear Head and Shoulders pattern actually retesting broken neckline. Unfolding of these patterns plus detailed Fibonacci analysis and Elliott Wave counting, give me a very possible support area, that will conform Right shoulder of a Daily Bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern in both indexes that, if unfolded, meaning with that bullish neckline break, retest and new higher prices, it will give us the certainty of a daily trend change to the upside. Having that said, what i FORECAST is: S&P: Drop down to an area within 853.40 to 777.44, then rise to 956.80 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level). Dow Jones: Drop down to an area within 7.779 to 7.389, then rise to 8.873 (Daily bullish H&S pattern`s Neckline level).

S&P charts

Dow Jones Charts

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GBPJPY… i always wanted to say this: “… ¡BANG! ”

See previous post on this topic: http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/07/gbpjpy-poised-to-big-short-bearish-move.html

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Definitely very good bearish opportunity in GBPJPY

Important to note that from 5 min to H4 timeframe, all MA`s are positioned in bearish “trend mode”

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GBPJPY poised for a bearish move

Based on my previous post on june 22th ( http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/gbpjpy-h4-head-and-shoulders-in-making.html ), and after the  possible bearish H&S`s neckline has been broken and retested, i think this pair will unfold a big bearish move of about 700 pips. despite of the H&S pattern, is very important to note that moving averages in H4 time frame, are positioning in bearish “trend mode”.

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S&P bearish Head and Shoulders, coherent with Elliott Wave counting

Continuing with my forecast done in June 15th ( see http://swelltrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/s-heading-for-bullish-head-and.html ), i see actual S&P index moves being coherent with the fact that the index is unfolding a bearish correction after 5 impulsive waves (i, ii, iii, iv & v), to conform wave 2 (ABC) of a bigger bullish move (5 bullish impulsive waves). Is very important to note that this bearish correction is being made thru the conformation of a possible bearish H&S in H4 time frame  I`ll wait for H&S`s neckline break and retest for confirmation.

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